Topic
also posted:
at: http://wattsupwiththat.com
; see in: Archive
at: http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/
, see in: Archive
NOAA:
Arctic Report Card:
Update for 2010
By
Arnd Bernaerts, 25 October 2010
With
the message The
Arctic region continues to heat up
the NASA
released (HERE) the
Arctic Report Card: Update for 2010 on the 21st
October 2010 (details below), compiled by 69 scientists,
and edited by
J.
Richter-Menge and J.E. Overland. The Arctic most relevant
sections, atmosphere, ice-cover, and ocean are discussed
from page 6 to 26. The same items were covered in the
first report of this kind in 2006 on 19 pages, with a
further section on Land (p.20-28), now on p.27-52, plus:
Greenland and Biology (p.53-100), including i.a.
Arctic Char, Goose Population, and Arctic Wildlife.
Does that indicates a mismatch from the onset, as the
report has been released with the headline: Return to previous Arctic conditions is unlikely. This question matters most.
ATMOSPHERE
The
Arctic Report Card is a timely source for clear, reliable
and concise environmental information on the state of the
Arctic, relative to historical time series records, proclaims NOAA
(HERE),
but the Report is of little help in this respect. Although
the Arctic is an ocean, and the report has a section on
Land, the section Atmosphere begins with the sentence:
The annual mean air temperature for 2009 over Arctic
land areas was cooler than in recent years, although the
average temperature for the last decade remained the
warmest in the record beginning in 1900, showing a Fig.A1
(mean 1961-90, CRUTEM 3v) that includes the North
Atlantic from Latitude 60N to 64N, the sea area from
southern Greenland to Norway. Is that a trick? At
least a calculation starting north of 64N do not show a
higher warming for now than around 1938/39, HERE.
Instead the Arctic Ocean temperature situation is
presented by a figure
(A3) , which indicates merely an increase in annual
temperature in 2009 for about one-third of the ocean space
in the Canadian Basin. A separate analysis for winter and
summer would be needed anyhow, and this report could 
have
covered Nov.2009 to April 2010 already at least. See
Fig. left, GISS DJF 2009/10.
Instead they talk globally: The first 7 months
of 2010 achieved a record high level of global mean air
temperature, but this could moderate for the rest of the
year due to La Nia influences. The warmest temperature
anomalies for the Arctic in the first half of 2010 were
over northeastern Canada (Fig4), which may be relevant
for January to June temperature in NE Canada, but little
concerning the Arctic Ocean.
However
something interesting happened.
__The
report mention that the winter 2009-2010 showed a major
new connectivity between Arctic climate and mid-latitude
severe weather, compared to the past.
__The report explains that the winds tend to blow from
west to east, thus separating cold arctic air masses from
the regions further south, but in December 2009 (Fig.
A7b) and February 2010 (Fig.
A7c) we actually had a reversal of this climate
pattern, with higher heights and pressures over the Arctic
that eliminated the normal west-to-east jet stream winds.
This allowed cold air from the Arctic to penetrate all the
way into Europe, eastern China, and Washington
DC.
__The report informs that this change in wind
directions is called the Warm Arctic-Cold Continents
climate pattern and has happened previously only three
times before in the last 160 years.
__The report explains: While individual weather extreme
events cannot be directly linked to larger scale climate
changes, recent data analysis and modeling suggest a link
between loss of sea ice and a shift to an increased impact
from the Arctic on mid-latitude climate.
The
previous sentence is certainly not an explanation of the
three corresponding years in the last 160 years. Not
even the years are mentioned, neither the any explanation
of the historical relevance to this years. Instead the
section ends with the conclusion that:
__
Models suggest that loss of sea ice in fall favors
higher geopotential heights over the Arctic. With future
loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009-2010 could
happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change
paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the
loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the
impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder
weather to southern locations.
OCEAN
& ICE
This
kind of presentation require some comments. But first a
brief review whether the sea-ice or oceans section
contribute something that should be observed. Certainly
not with regard to the ocean section, as the authors
discuss only the time period from 2007 to 2009, not even
mentioning the winter 2009/10, respectively any period or
month in 2010. The editors should have ensured that
section complement each other. Astonishing that the
preparation of a two page long text (about 1300 words)
required 15 authors from 8 institutions and 5 nations.
On
the other hand the only one text-page long section on sea
ice cover starts with the remarkable sentence: Sea ice
extent is the primary parameter for summarizing the state
of the Arctic sea ice cover., and regards as Highlights
of 2010:
___September minimum sea ice extent is third lowest
recorded.
___Loss of thick multiyear ice in Beaufort Sea during
summer.
The
main discussion is about the difference between 2007 and
2010, culminating in the information that:
___
Winter 2010 was characterized by a very strong
atmospheric circulation pattern that led to warmer than
normal temperatures.
___
A strong atmospheric circulation pattern during winter
2010 kept most of the 2-3 year old ice in the central
Arctic, and during June helped push the ice edge away from
the coast.
Not
less informative was a post by one of the four authors,
Dr. Walt Meier, at the climate blog WUWT
(21. Oct.): Summer 2010 in the Arctic and other Sea
Ice topics, i.a. mentioning the importance of bottom
and lateral melt, which depends on the ocean temperatures.
WIND
SHIFT
The
report could have been of some value, at least with a
basic analysis and explanation concerning the phenomenal
change of wind direction during winter 2009/2010. While it
may be risky to guess about three events, I can bet on one
without any hesitation, namely winter 1939/40, the first
World War II winter, which is a subject of considerable
research for some time (http://climate-ocean.com/).
See Fig. GISS DJF 1939/40. At the end
of the 1930s the NH temperature had been very high, but
suddenly Europe was confronted with the coldest winter
since the LIA. This included an interesting change in wind
direction, for example in Great Britain (see Fig) during
the winter seasons 1814, 1841, and 1939/40. One of the
leading German meteorologists at that time, R. Scherhag;
explained the sudden change few years later in this
way:
___The
temperature anomalies which were observed in the northern
hemisphere in January 1940 can easily be explained by the
occurrence of the pressure deviations. (Richard
Scherhag, 1951, Die groe Zirkulationsstrung im Jahr
1940; Annalen der Meteorologie, Vol. 7-9, pp. 327-328).
In the same way he tried to explain the Arctic warming
(1919 to 1939) in the 1930s.. C.E.P. Brooks
(1938) required to name the reason: "Attributing
the recent period of warm winters to an increase in the
strength of the atmospheric circulation only pushes the
problem one stage further back, for we should still have
to account for the change of circulation."
(in: The Warming Arctic, The Meteorological
Magazine, 1938, p.29-32.). The next answer was not far:
Its the ocean that matter.
And here we are, 70 years later. NASA presents a report
with fanfare. Few new facts. Meagre explanation. Claims
that scare. No wonder, who is not able to explain the
early Arctic warming since 1919, and the onset of the
global cooling since winter 1939/40, is unlikely to
explain convincingly the mechanisms that drives the
conditions in the polar region today. The oceans should be
the prime factor, instead the NASA Report puts the
atmosphere and sea ice cover first.
REFERENCE:
__NOAA: Arctic Report Card 2010, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/
Arctic Report Card: Update for 2010 -
Tracking recent environmental changes
Richter-Menge,
J., and J.E. Overland, Eds.: Arctic Report Card 2010,
(Full report)
The various essays shall cite the mentioned authors (In
total about 69)
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
(in PDF: 7,5 MB)
___TABLE OF CONTENT
NOTE: The Table of Content is only available by titles,
subtitle, pages and other info added.
____Atmosphere:
Arctic
climate is impacting mid-latitude weather, as seen in
Winter 2009-2010 , p.6-13.
____Sea
Ice: Summer
sea ice conditions for previous four years well below
1980s and 1990s, p.14-18.
____Ocean:
Upper
ocean showing year-to-year variability without significant
trends, p. 19-26.
____Land
: Low
winter snow accumulation, warm spring temperatures lead to
record low snow cover duration ; p. 27
(Vegetation 28-32), Permafrost (33-37), River Discharge
(38-40), Terrestrial Snow (41-45), Glaciers outside
Greenland (46-52).
___Greenland:
Record
setting high temperatures, ice melt, and glacier area loss
, p. 53-62.
___Biology:
Rapid
environmental change threatens to disrupt current natural
cycles, p. 63 (Summary);
___Biology Essays (p.64-101): State
of Reindeer herds; Marine
Mammals ; Murres;
Fisheries
in the Bering Sea; Fisheries
in the Barents Sea; Arctic
Char; Goose
Populations; Arctic
Wildlife.
Figures on Global Temperature:
__NASA: GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km _Anom D/J/F_2009/10
& 1939/40 vs 1920-1939
