IPCC
Problems with Temperature Projection, Discussed by Girma
Orssengo.
Here by: seacliamte.com/26 Apr.2010
In
an interesting post at THE AIR VENT, 26 April 2010, titled:
“Predictions Of Global Mean Temperatures & IPCC Projections“,
the author, Girma Orssengo, assess the IPCC claim that human
emission of CO2 causes catastrophic global warming. He regards
this a highly problematic and analyses the oscillating anomaly
with a maximum in the 1880s, 1940s, & 2000s; and a minimum
in the 1910s and 1970s.
By naming the years 1910s and 1940s as min/max-years, or years that saw a
temperatures shift, we relate this to the two World Wars as
analysed and discussed at:
___World
War I, 1914-1919: http://www.arctic-heats-up.com/
, http://www.arctic-warming.com/
___World War II, 1939-1945: http://climate-ocean.com/
, http://www.warchangesclimate.com
.
Kindly read Orssengo’s following assessment (extract)
in this perspective, and consider it would not be necessary to
ask what role did naval war activities played in this climatic
shifts.
One example of comparing apples to apples is to compare one period that has one warming phase with another that
also has one warming phase. From Figure 3, two 30-year periods
that have only one warming phase are the periods from 1910 to
1940 and from 1970 to 2000. For the period from 1910 to 1940,
the increase in Global Mean
Temperature Anomaly
(GMTA) was 0.13+0.64=0.77 deg C,
giving a warming rate of (0.77/30)*10=0.26 deg C per decade.
Similarly, for the period from 1970 to 2000, the increase in
GMTA was 0.48+0.29=0.77 deg C, giving an identical warming
rate of 0.26 deg C per decade. Therefore, there is no “accelerated warming”
in the period from 1970 to 2000 compared to the period from
1910 to 1940.
A
second example of comparing apples to apples is to compare one period that has one cooling and warming phases with
another that also has one cooling and warming phases. From
Figure 3, two 60-year periods that have only one cooling and
warming phases are the periods from 1880 to 1940 and from 1940
to 2000. For the period from 1880 to 1940, the increase in
GMTA was 0.13+0.22=0.35 deg C, giving a warming rate of
(0.35/60)*10=0.06 deg C per decade. Similarly, for the period
from 1940 to 2000, the increase in GMTA was 0.48-0.13=0.35 deg
C, giving an identical warming rate of 0.06 deg C per decade.
Therefore, there is no “accelerated warming”
in the period from 1940 to 2000 compared to the period from
1880 to 1940.
Orssengo
concludes
(excerpt): According to the IPCC and the above
suggestion, the 1940 GMTA turning point from global warming to
cooling was caused by sulfates, the 1970 GMTA turning point
from cooling to warming was caused by carbon dioxide, and the
2000 GMTA turning point from warming to plateau was caused by
sulfates. It is interesting to note that sulfate and carbon
dioxide gave the globe a 30-year alternate cooling and warming
phases from 1940 to 2000. This is just absurd.
Instead
of saying, “Be awkward if we went through a early 1940s
type swing!” in private, but global warming “is
accelerating at a much faster pace” in public, please
release the world from the fear of climate catastrophe from
use of fossil fuels, as this catastrophe is not supported by
your own data. It is extremely callous not to do so. Is the
theory that “human emission of CO2 causes catastrophic
global warming” one of the greatest blunders or
something worse of “science”?
What-is-climate
suggest: It
its time to name the reason for the climatic shifts in the end
of the 1910s and the early of the 1940s, and to pay particular
attention to the impact of the two major naval wars in the
last Century.